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Briefing: war in Nagorno-Karabach
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by David Vauclair
David Vauclair, studied at McGill University and “Sciences Po”-Paris and teaches political science in Paris at the ILERI (the “Institut Libre d’Etudes en Relations Internationales” founded by René Cassin), the University of Paris-Sud and several other prestigious institutions. He is the author of many articles and books, including a recent monograph, co-written with Jane Weston Vauclair, on the Charlie Hebdo weekly satirical newspaper (De Charlie Hebdo à Charlie: Enjeux, histoire, perspectives), and Les religions d'Abraham : Judaïsme, christianisme et islam , a comparative study of the three large contemporary monotheistic religions prefaced by Odon Valet, one of Europe’s most renowned historians of religions.
agorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus is at the heart of a conflict between Armenia (3 million inhabitants) and Azerbaijan (10 million). The two camps have rejected each on eachother the responsibility for the hostilities. However, this territory has no strategic importance, no natural resources, and it is of no economic value except perhaps symbolic. Paradoxically, however, it has been shaping the economic development and the political stability of Armenia, Azerbaijan and of the entire region. Today, the small self-proclaimed republic (de facto independent since 1991), anchored in Armenia and to which it hopes to unite one day, has a Constitution, a parliament, a coat of arms and an army of 20,000 men, for a total population of 150,000 inhabitants. But it is still unrecognized by the international community and Azerbaijan continues to consider it as its occupied territory.
Dividing in order to reign, Stalin (himself a native from the Caucasus, a Georgian), when he was the Bolshevik cabinet member in charge of nationalities and their organization by republics which would later form the USSR split Azerbaijan in two by an Armenian land corridor and split Armenians living in the Nagorno Karabakh from their country by annexing their region to Azerbaijan.
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In 1905, 1918, then from 1991 to 1994, three wars opposed the Armenian mountain dwellers to the “Tatars” of the valleys, now called Azeris. The last of theses wars caused more than 30,000 deaths. For years, skirmishes have been incessant at the border and the bellicose statements from both parties bear witness to a persistent refusal to make concessions in order to move towards a peaceful outcome. Vigorously strengthened by oil sales for the past two decades, the Azerbaijani army is attempting to recover by force the territories it had to cede during its debacle in 1994. The last fighting took place in 2016 during the war of four days launched and won by Baku. Armenia admitted, at the time, having lost 800 hectares, "of no strategic importance".
Baku [the capital of Azerbaijan – N&C] defends the principle of territorial integrity on the basis of the four Security Council resolutions adopted in 1993. A steadfast supporter of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh republic, Yerevan for its part supports the principle of self-determination for this former autonomous region. Populated by Armenians, Nagorno-Karabakh was annexed to Azerbaijan in 1921 by Stalin, who at the time was (among other executive government positions) People's Commissar (minister) for Nationalities.
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Any accurate analysis of relations between the neighbors in the region defies all simplistic models. Christian Armenia* is militarily allied with Orthodox Russia and three Muslim countries of Central Asia in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). 5,000 Russian soldiers are also permanently deployed in Armenia, but Vladimir Putin seems to have more ties with Azerbaijan’s president and autocrat Aliev than Russia’s ally, the liberal and pro-European Prime Minister Pachinian. Yerevan [the capital of Aremenia – N&C] also maintains cordial relations with Shiite Iran, itself very suspicious of Shiite Azerbaijan, which claims to be very close to a NATO member, Sunni Turkey (their links are described by the formula "one nation, two states") and Orthodox Chrisitian Georgia, itself in open conflict with the Orthodox Chrisitian Russians ...
"Azerbaijan has oil, Armenians have the diaspora", liked to say the former president of Karabakh, Mr. Arkadi Ghougassian. Particularly in France, This large diaspora is mobilizing in the media war that accompanies the military operations in the field. Since 1994, a significant part of the aid sent by Armenian communities around the world has arrived in Stepanakert. It is, for example, half of the donations managed by the Armenian Fund of France.
But this aid is very meager compared to the oil revenues: the Azerbaijani military budget has been, for ten years and depending on the year, 6 to 8 times larger than Armenia’s. The armies are also of unequal size and strength, in favor of Azerbaijan, now rich in drones and planes. It is therefore logical that Baku seeks "a military solution to the conflict", to quote Mr. Aliev , while Yerevan would prefer a diplomatic solution.
"Azerbaijan has oil, Armenians have the diaspora", liked to say the former president of Karabakh, Mr. Arkadi Ghougassian. Particularly in France, This large diaspora is mobilizing in the media war that accompanies the military operations in the field. Since 1994, a significant part of the aid sent by Armenian communities around the world has arrived in Stepanakert. It is, for example, half of the donations managed by the Armenian Fund of France.
But this aid is very meager compared to the oil revenues: the Azerbaijani military budget has been, for ten years and depending on the year, 6 to 8 times larger than Armenia’s. The armies are also of unequal size and strength, in favor of Azerbaijan, now rich in drones and planes. It is therefore logical that Baku seeks "a military solution to the conflict", to quote Mr. Aliev , while Yerevan would prefer a diplomatic solution.
Azerbaijan has oil, Armenians have the diaspora"
(former president of Karabakh, Arkadi Ghougassia
More Armenians (approximately 7 million) live abroad than in Armenia (approximately 3 million). Map by Kentronhayastan CC BY-SA 4.0
No Nation-State, except Armenia, recognizes the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and officially the territory belongs to Azerbaijan. Legally, Baku is within its rights. One of the most important post-WWII stadards in international relations is that borders cannot be legitimately changed by violence. However, international law is also a reflection of the law of the strongest and it is not as binding as national law.
The Armenian side, emphasizes historical arguments: the presence of a thousand-year-old Armenian population, the autonomy of the region under the Soviet Union, and the perversity of Stalin who decided to separate Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia precisely as a strategy of “divide and reign”. Armenia’s demographic argument is that the population is overwhelmingly Armenian and recognizes itself as such (the referendums, although organized in a very questionable way were nevertheless indisputably won by the "Armenian" side). Finally, Armenians present a moral argument which centers on both the right of peoples to self-determination and a martyr: with the exception of the Khojaly massacre (the mass murder of 161 ethnic Azeri civilians from the town of Khojaly on 26 February 1992 ) perpetrated "in retaliation ", pogroms and massacres of Armenians by the Azeris are common and much more numerous (from the murderous siege of Stepanakert, through the pogroms of Baku, Kirovabad, to the massacre of Maraga), in addition to the destruction of the Armenian historic and artistic heritage in the region.
The Armenian side, emphasizes historical arguments: the presence of a thousand-year-old Armenian population, the autonomy of the region under the Soviet Union, and the perversity of Stalin who decided to separate Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia precisely as a strategy of “divide and reign”. Armenia’s demographic argument is that the population is overwhelmingly Armenian and recognizes itself as such (the referendums, although organized in a very questionable way were nevertheless indisputably won by the "Armenian" side). Finally, Armenians present a moral argument which centers on both the right of peoples to self-determination and a martyr: with the exception of the Khojaly massacre (the mass murder of 161 ethnic Azeri civilians from the town of Khojaly on 26 February 1992 ) perpetrated "in retaliation ", pogroms and massacres of Armenians by the Azeris are common and much more numerous (from the murderous siege of Stepanakert, through the pogroms of Baku, Kirovabad, to the massacre of Maraga), in addition to the destruction of the Armenian historic and artistic heritage in the region.
The balance of power which is very much in favor of Azerbaijan and the persistence of Nagorno-Karabakh in separating from it whatever the costs, suggest that the question is above all a question of national honor for Baku and a profound question of identity for Armenia.
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The Etchmiadzin Cathedral. According to most scholars it was the first cathedral built in ancient Armenia,[E] and is often considered the oldest cathedral building in the world, originally built in the first years of the 4th century of the current era. The present building dates back to 483 and 484 (with additions up to the 19th century).
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* The Kingdom of Armenia was the first state to adopt Christianity (from traditional Zoroastrianism) as its official religion under the rule of King Tiridates III (ca. 250-ca.330) in the year 301, just before the Kingdom of Georgia. The Roman Empire, under Emperor Constantine, was only the third state in history to become officially Christian. The Armenian Church officially severed ties with Rome and Constantinople and all other Christian archbishops in 554. In 1054 occured the split between Rome claiming central, universal governing authority over all other local churches and the bishops, archbishops and "patriarchs" of Constantinople, Jerusalem, Antioch, Alexandria and other regions claiming that the Church was, from its origins, a confederation of local assemblies and not a pyramidal form of government. All together, these churches (that see themselves as one, to this day), refusing the system of Roman papal government and excommunicated by Rome (an excommunication lifted in the 1960s) would become known as the "Orthodox Church" or "Eastern Orhtodox Church" (or often, in modern times "Greek" Orthodox, "Russian" Orthodox, etc. depending on the ethnicity of the pastors and the faithful --- an often misleading use of vocabulary that gives the impression that these local churches constitute different denominations). The Georgian Orthodox Church the head of which is the archbishop of Mtsekhet and Tbilissi, a patriarch with the special honorary title of "catholicos". The Armenian church that broke away with Rome and Constantinople in 554 calls itself the "Armenian Apostolic Chruch" because --- like the Roman Catholic Church or the Orthodox Church --- it can trace its history of succession of bishops (recorded by oral transmission or by manuscripts) to one of the first bishops consecrated by an apostle of the New testament. But it also frequently refers to itself as the "Armenian Orthodox Church". Like the churches known as the "Oriental Christian Churches" --- the Coptic Orthodox Church of Egypt or the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, the Armenian Orthodox Church is not part of the Orthodox Church (the religion of the Greeks, Russians, Bulgarians, Romanians, Serbs, etc.). However, the rituals of both of these separate denominations are very similar and they both agree on the concept of confederation as the structure of church government; also, for several years their leaders and theologians have been in intense dialogue to find common denominators and erase misunderstandings in their doctrines.
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